Brumm Speaks Out

I spent 2 days this week working with producers who purchase feed ingredients from a regional supplier. At all of the sites, I was once again shocked by the lack of knowledge regarding the ventilation system. By lack of knowledge, I mean producers who only knew how to change the set point on a controller.

At almost all of the sites, there were improper settings in the controllers that resulted in higher than necessary fuel expenses. A classic example was a farrowing house where the set point for the room was 70F. The furnace was set to turn on at 70F and off at 71F. At the same time the stage 1 variable speed fan began increasing speed at 70F. The obvious complaint was high fuel bills. The solution – reset the furnace so it turned on at 67F and off at 68F.

At the same time, we examined how the variable speed fan for stage 1 operated. In one farrowing room, the fan was at full speed when the controller was set at 50% minimum speed. Below that, a change of 1% on the minimum speed caused enough of a change in speed that we could hear the change. Unfortunately, this controller (over 10 years old) did not have the capabilities of any adjustments to compensate for how the fan responded to the voltage signal from the controller.

In another farrowing room, the controller had user selectable motor curves, but the producer had never been shown how to select them. In this case, the consequence of the wrong operating curve for the fan installed resulted in a very high propane bill.

Another common problem is thermostat settings in pre-heat hallways. Everyone assumes that because heat is often needed in the farrowing rooms and nursery rooms associated with these hallways the temperature of the hallway is relatively unimportant.

In fact, the room using air from the hallway reacts as if outside air temperature is the hallway temperature. When it is 0F outside and 55F in the hallway, the ventilation in the room responds to 55F, not 0F.

To better understand this issue, I modeled the balance point temperature for a farrowing room with a pre-heat hallway. The balance point temperature is the incoming air temperature at which heat production by the lactating sow and litter equals heat loss for the insulated building shell and ventilation system. I used a 22 crate farrowing room with R=30 for ceiling insulation and R=19 for sidewall insulation.

The balance point temperature for a farrowing room full of females and litters that are approximately 2-2.5 weeks into lactation was 45F when the minimum ventilation rate was 25 cfm/crate. This means that when the incoming air was warmer than 45F, the ventilation system in the room would speed up as heat would gradually increase in the room.

I also looked at the impact of various ventilation rates on this balance point temperature. At 35 cfm/crate, the balance point became 50F. That is, when the pre-heat hallway is set to 50F, the ventilation rate in the farrowing room will speed up to 35 cfm/crate to maintain temperature in the room. This means more air must be pre-heated in the hallway, only to go out the ventilation fans at rates higher than the minimum rate needed for moisture control.

This suggests that farrowing facilities that have pre-heat hallways set to 50-55F for worker comfort have higher than necessary fuel expenses due to over ventilation of farrowing rooms.

I have been making the circuit of state pork shows and meetings in the past month (IA, MN, VA and OH so far). In visiting with feed company and other allied industry representatives, I am getting many reports of empty finishing barns and frantic interest by some in sourcing pigs to fill sites. However, SEW and feeder pig prices as reported every Friday in the USDA feeder pig market report (www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/NW_LS255.txt) don’t indicate such a frenzy.

While the numbers vary somewhat, it appears to a consensus that in the eastern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio region there are 80-100,000 grow-finish spaces available or soon to be available. In the Iowa and Southern Minnesota region, the number is larger. While 100,000 empty spaces sounds like there is a large reduction in growing pig inventory, lets put that number in perspective.

If we assume the reports of empty spaces includes a blend of wean-finish (26 weeks per turn) and grow-finish (18 weeks per turn) facilities, we can use a 21 week turnover to estimate impact on weekly slaughter numbers. Let’s assume that there are 300,000 pig spaces idle or becoming idle in the near future. If we divide this by 21 weeks, this is just over 14,000 pigs per week. This is barely a ripple in the tidal flow of pigs coming to slaughter when we look at 2.2+ million pigs per week.

If we use the 21 estimate of average turnover for all facilities, to reduce sales 200,000 pigs per week, we need to have 4.2 million spaces go empty in the US. Granted, my estimate of 21 weeks for an average estimate may be off, and some of the spaces that will become empty are older facilities where the owners have no intention of ever refilling. Even with this older and worn-out facility exemption, it looks like the industry needs to start hearing stories of over 1 million pig spaces available before we can really have confidence that the pig numbers coming to slaughter will decline in large enough numbers to impact the market.

There have been many suggesting that the reduction in SEW and feeder pig imports from Canada will be a major impact on our slaughter numbers. In the first 2 months of 2008, we averaged just over 149,000 Canadian weaned and feeder pig imports. In 2009, we are averaging right at 100,000 head per week. A reduction of 50,000 pigs per week is a reduction, but relative to the need to reduce numbers over 200,000 per week, this is not where the majority of the reduction will come from.

For the first 2 months of 2008, the US imported an average of just over 63,000 Canadian slaughter barrows and gilts per week. So far this year we are averaging 15,000 per week, with only 9940 for the week ending February 7. This is another 45,000+ per week fewer pigs in the US slaughter mix.

Of more interest are the offers some are making to source pigs into paid-for facilities. The norm is around $36/space/year for grow-fin in the upper midwest. I’ve had reports of offers of $20/space if the grower gets to access to the manure. At 2.6 turns/year from grow-fin, this is a $6.15 per pig placed reduction in contract cost to the pig owner. All of this suggests we are not going to reduce US female inventory very fast.

On Wednesday, February 4, the USDA released the 2007 Census of Agriculture (http://www.agcensus.usda.gov). This census gives us a very detailed look at the structure of America’s production agriculture base. Included in the census are details regarding on-farm inventories on December 31, 2007 and sales during the 2007 calendar year.

Most state ag statistic bureaus no longer report yearly hogs and pigs data by county within a state due to budget restrictions. Thus, the Census of Ag, which is conducted every 5 years, becomes our only opportunity for data on specifics of pig production in specific counties within states.

One of the statistics reported is the number of pigs sold. This number includes market pigs, feeder and weaned pigs and cull breeding stock. While somewhat confusing due to the possible mix of sales, never the less the data gives some indication of the economic impact of pork production within a county.

In 2007, the top 10 counties in the US for sales of hogs and pigs were (number of pigs sold in million head): Sampson, NC (9.25), Duplin, NC (8.51), Bladen, NC (3.65), Texas, OK (3.10), Sioux, IA (2.94), Martin, MN (2.17),Wayne, NC (2.14), Plymouth, IA (2.07), Blue Earth, MN (1.83), and Lyon, IA (1.61).

On December 31, 2007, the top 10 counties in the US for inventory of hogs and pigs were (number of pigs in thousand head): Duplin, NC (2,285), Sampson, NC (2,156), Texas, OK (1,146), Sioux, IA (1,094), Hardin, IA (875), Bladen, NC (812), Plymouth, IA (765), Kossuth, IA (747), Martin, MN (692), and Franklin, IA (600).

There were 17 counties in the US identified with inventories on December 31, 2007 greater than 500,000 pigs. Of these 17 counties, there were 10 in Iowa (Carroll, Franklin, Hardin, Kossuth, Lyons, Palo Alto, Plymouth, Sioux, Washington and Wright), 4 in North Carolina (Bladen, Duplin, Sampson and Wayne), 2 in Minnesota (Martin and Blue Earth) and 1 in Oklahoma (Texas). The large number of Iowa counties with inventories greater than 500,000 pigs supports the December 1, 2008 USDA Hogs and Pigs report which listed Iowa with 30.9% of all pigs in the kept for market category.